Keying in on individual players who fit these criteria shows why. Andruw Jones aged about as poorly as possible for a player of this caliber; if Harper follows Jones’s deleterious aging curve precisely, he’d still produce $228 million worth of value for his new team over the next decade. David Wright missed nearly half of his possible games from age 26 to age 35 because of injury; Machado could follow his path and still produce $224 million. And those are near worst-case scenarios. Ken Griffey Jr. and Roberto Alomar are remembered for rapid deterioration, but their respective paths would yield nearly $400 million in value in today’s money. And, again, those are the below-average precedents.
I’m stunned neither of these guys are getting offers over $300 million. I thought both would be sure things to receive, at a minimum, what Washington previously offered Harper at 10 years, $300 million.
This whole article is chalk full of stats and numbers laying out a case for paying even more than that. I’m still holding out hope the Cubs might be able to snag one of these guys and move off of Schwarber, who, for all his great hitting, is too much of a debacle on defense to warrant a starting job in the National League.